Analyzing The Josh Naylor Trade and Carlos Santana Reunion
With the departure of Josh Naylor and addition of Carlos Santana, where do the Guardians stand?
The Cleveland Guardians swung another unpopular trade amongst their fans on Saturday night, trading All-Star 1B Josh Naylor to the Arizona Diamondbacks in exchange for RHP Slade Cecconi and a Competitive Balance Round B pick in the upcoming MLB Draft.
Cleveland quickly replaced Naylor’s production by then agreeing to terms with veteran 1B Carlos Santana on a one-year/$12M deal — reuniting with Santana for the third time in his career.
Similar to the Andrés Gimenez trade earlier this month, there is a lot to unpack here in understanding why Cleveland would pull off this trade.
Naylor is entering the final year of his contract in 2025 and projections estimate him to earn $12M. Therefore, Cleveland is not saving money by trading him and signing Santana — so right away, that argument that I am sure many Cleveland fans have verbalized, is completely flawed.
Essentially, the Guardians are swapping out Naylor for Santana for the 2025 season. Cleveland believes that its roster is stronger with the veteran first-baseman on it as opposed to Naylor, and quite frankly they’re correct.
Naylor has two major flaws as a baseball player: his awful plate discipline and his defense. In his five years in Cleveland, Naylor only walked at a 12% clip. In his 43 PA in the postseason, the slugger only drew two walks, both coming in the late stages of the ALCS.
In terms of his glove, Naylor posted a -3 DRS in 2024, and his fielding metrics project in the bottom half of the league. In Santana, Cleveland is adding a player who excels at drawing walks — ranked in the 82nd percentile in baseball in 2024 — and accounted for 8 DRS in 2024, winning his first career gold glove.
In strictly those two categories, Cleveland got better. Now, where Naylor excels is with the bat and especially in the power department. He connected for 33 HR in 2024, so surely the Guardians are losing out right?
Well, Naylor benefited from an elite start to the season. If you look into his splits, in the first half of the season he posted an OPS of .816 with 21 HR. However, he cooled off significantly in the second half, with an OPS of .717 and only 9 HR — including an OPS of .531 in the postseason.
Santana on the other hand — while I understand he is 39-years-old — falls in the middle ground of Naylor’s two-tailed season, and posted a .749 OPS in 2024. If Santana is able to replicate his success in 2025 is truly the question here, however there is reason to believe he’ll still be an above average player.
In terms of their 2025 projections, FanGraphs has both players relatively close. Naylor is projected a wRC+ of 116, while Santana is projected at 109.
While, I understand in part the argument that states that Cleveland is subtracting from its ALCS roster rather than improving it, I would disagree.
It was a widely known fact that the Guardians were not interested in extending Naylor, therefore, the time was now to trade him. Nobody ever expected Cleveland to land a massive haul for the first baseman, and it was reported that many teams — including the Guardians — were concerned by his weight gain.
Therefore, instead of keeping him and losing him for nothing next winter, the Guardians are able to acquire a really intriguing player in Cecconi, an additional draft pick which will net them a solid prospect and replace his production with Santana.
Also lost in this whole discussion is the presence of Kyle Manzardo. This trade opens the door for him to be a regular in the 2025 lineup, and many people are discounting what he can bring over a full 162.
Manzardo is projected to have a higher wRC+ than Naylor in 2025, at 119 — 19 points above league average. So, theoretically just in giving Manzardo more playing time, Cleveland should be a better club.
A 1B/DH duo of Manzardo/Santana is a far more complete set of hitters than one that would have consisted of Manzardo/Naylor.
In addition to improving at first base, the Guardians also grab a very controllable arm that needs work but has the potential to turn into an elite pitcher. I view Cecconi as more of a bullpen guy, he excels at limiting walks and has three above average offspeed pitches. If Cleveland is able to develop his fastball, maybe he could pan out as a starter.
It has been reported that the Tampa Bay Rays were also interested in Cecconi. The Guardians and Rays are the two best organizations at developing pitching, so when they’re both interested in a pitcher, I am intrigued.
Look, I understand trading Naylor is confusing to a lot of people but I am not ready to say the Guardians are a worse team than 2024. This is how the Guardians operate, while it is not the ideal way to run an organization, this is how they maximize player value.
Sitting here and complaining about trading away fan favourites won’t solve anything. This team has proven it has success in building rosters this way, and just because it reached the ALCS in 2024 — by beating the 86-win Detroit Tigers — shouldn’t and will not change the way they operate.